Many have speculated that all of Ukraine is so inherently corrupt that at least some of the guns and weapons sent to Ukraine would inevitably end up on the black market all over Europe and gangs would be armed to the teeth from London to Prague.

I argued that despite whatever corruption may or may not have been the guiding principle before the war, survival motivated everyone to keep each other in check since every bullet and gun was needed against the invasion. Anyone caught diverting crucial war material away from the cause was likely to just get plowed under in some field and never make it before any judge or tribunal. There have been a handful of busts of local criminal gangs stockpiling stuff. But whenever they get uncovered, the Ukrainian authorities hammer them unmercifully to make an example out of them. Interpol has been watching very closely for any instances of weapons bleeding back into Europe and it has been nearly zero. Incredibly low.

But,...that said,...there is an astounding amount of rifles and other small arms unaccounted for. That's not really a surprise. When the excrement hit the oscillating wind distribution turbine, the emergency meant normal rules didn't apply. The Russians were coming down the road, and rifles were handed out to nearly anybody willing to stand and fight. And it is also true that in war, stuff gets broken, destroyed, captured, lost or buried when the incoming mortar round collapses your trench. S**t happens. So there is just no way every rifle is ever going to be accounted for.

But let's be honest,...if any of us were unfortunate enough to live there and had half a brain,...we'd know from history that peace in Europe (and Ukraine in particular) is always temporary. Regardless of how well Ukraine does in this war,...even if they win spectacularly,...the Russians will be back. The peace will be temporary - merely a ceasefire, really. So you and I, if we lived there, regardless of whatever else we might be doing,...we would look for an opportunity to stash away at least one weapon and some ammo. Maybe several. And who could blame you?

If you were paying attention back in 1990 when Yugoslavia broke apart and that war began,...you saw lots and lots of old Nazi guns suddenly materialize out of the woodwork, literally. Grandpa buried that old MG42 under the well house, because he had a memory and wasn't stupid.

And so it is that the bean-counters in Lviv and Kyiv have determined that there are over 270,000 weapons unaccounted for. That's a lot of Kalashnikovs buried under the barn. And as the graph below shows, the highest rates of weapons "loss" is near the eastern frontier regions along the border with Russia, which only makes sense, really.

And no doubt, a lot of those are also likely purposely staged in caches all over the country in case the war goes badly, so that partizan insurrection folks can continue to wage rebellion. But also undoubtedly, this means putting the genie back in the bottle when it comes to civilian firearms ownership will be incredibly difficult if not impossible.

Regardless of what happens, it will be interesting.

https://opendatabot.ua/en/analytics/weapon-wanted-2024